Texas Senate Election 2026
John Cornyn (R) lost the primary. Rating: Toss-up.
Status: upcoming. Election day is November 3, 2026.
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | Democratic | State representative |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | Texas attorney general |
Polls
| Date | Pollster | James Talarico | Ken Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21, 2026 | ActiVote | 51% | 49% |
| October 19, 2026 | Univ. of Houston | 48% | 46% |
| October 18, 2026 | CBS News | 51% | 49% |
| October 15, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 48% | 49% |
| October 14, 2026 | Univ. of Texas | 50% | 47% |
| October 14, 2026 | Marist | 47% | 45% |
| October 13, 2026 | Quantus (R) | 47% | 47% |
| October 13, 2026 | ReconMR/Siena | 48% | 44% |
| October 8, 2026 | Trafalgar (R) | 47% | 44% |
| October 5, 2026 | YouGov | 50% | 44% |
| September 30, 2026 | NYT/Siena | 51% | 45% |
| September 29, 2026 | Rasmussen (R) | 46% | 45% |
| September 28, 2026 | Fox News | 51% | 49% |
| September 28, 2026 | UMass Lowell/YouGov | 45% | 45% |
| September 27, 2026 | Pulse (R) | 45% | 48% |
| September 26, 2026 | Big Data Poll (R) | 45% | 42% |
| September 24, 2026 | Stratus (R) | 48% | 48% |
| September 22, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 49% | 44% |
| September 20, 2026 | Marist | 50% | 44% |
| September 19, 2026 | Texas Southern Univ. | 47% | 46% |
| September 17, 2026 | Trafalgar (R) | 46% | 45% |
| September 14, 2026 | Emerson | 47% | 46% |
Average of the undefined most recent polls: James Talarico 48.2%, Ken Paxton 45.7%. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
Where the candidates stand
James Talarico (D)
- Wants Roe v. Wade written into law; proposed barring the Legislature from restricting abortion access. (2026) source
- Says he would protect the Second Amendment while requiring universal background checks. (2026-02) source
- Would create a path to citizenship for long-term residents, spouses and DREAMers while deporting criminals. (2026) source
- Would let Americans of any age join Medicare. (2026-02) source
- Would close billionaire tax loopholes and raise the corporate tax rate. (2026) source
- Would remove the Trump tariffs on farm inputs. (2026-02) source
- Supports a $15 federal minimum wage with tax credits for small businesses. (2026) source
- Supports the PRO Act and proposed repealing Texas limits on unions. (2026) source
- Would speed up renewable energy; proposed regulating greenhouse gases in the Texas House. (2026) source
- Says Iran can be countered without bombing and the president must make the case for war to Congress. (2026) source
- Would legalize regulated marijuana for adults. (2026-02) source
- Opposes private-school vouchers. (2026) source
- Supports access to health care for transgender children. (2026) source
- Would protect the legality of same-sex marriage. (2026-02) source
- Supports a federal paid family leave law. (2026-02) source
Ken Paxton (R)
- Backed Texas's near-total abortion ban and sued to stop abortion pills from being shipped into Texas. (2026) source
- Has sued to loosen gun restrictions, including over licensed carry in venues and federal pistol-brace rules. (2026) source
- Calls for securing the border and deporting people in the country illegally. (2025-08) source
- Led the 2018 legal challenge to DACA and opposed "parole in place". (2026) source
- Led a multistate lawsuit to strike down the Affordable Care Act. (2026) source
- Praised extending the 2017 tax cuts and pledges to cut taxes and spending. (2026) source
- Opposed raising the minimum wage for federal contractors to $15. (2026) source
- Has acted to limit union dues and union activity on city time. (2026) source
- Has sued to block federal climate and environmental rules and a methane fee. (2025-01) source
- Said he was very glad Trump took military action against Iran. (2026) source
- Called Texas's new school choice law a major victory. (2026) source
- Has acted to block gender-transition care for minors. (2026) source
- In 2015 told county clerks they could refuse same-sex marriage licenses on religious grounds. (2015-06-28) source
Sources
- 2026 United States Senate elections (Wikipedia)
- Latest Senate polls (RealClearPolling)
- 2026 election polls (Political.org)
- Cook Political Report Senate ratings
- The Green Papers: 2026 candidates by state
- Cook Political Report Senate overview: South Carolina, Mississippi, Minnesota (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Midterm Elections in Ohio, October 2026 (Marist Poll)
- Midterm Elections in Michigan, October 2026 (Marist Poll)
Ratings, candidates and polls last updated October 24, 2026. Ratings are expert forecasts, not results.