Texas Senate: Talarico vs. Paxton, and the polls

Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. With early voting under way, polls show a close race between state Rep. James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

How we got here

Ken Paxton, Texas's attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff, 63.8% to 36.2%, after President Trump endorsed him. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the state Senate.

James Talarico, a state representative and former teacher who studied at a seminary, won the Democratic nomination with 52.4%, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

Early voting

Early voting began October 19 and runs through October 30. Travis County (Austin) had nearly 41,000 voters on day one, a first-day record for any midterm this century, and North Texas counties also reported record first-day turnout.

The polls (October)

• ActiVote, Oct. 17–21: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%

• University of Houston, Oct. 19: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%

• CBS News, Oct. 18: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%

• InsiderAdvantage (R), Oct. 15: Paxton 49%, Talarico 48%

• University of Texas, Oct. 14: Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%

• Marist, Oct. 8–11: Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%

• Quantus (R), Oct. 13: tied at 47%

Averages put Talarico ahead by roughly 2 to 3 points, inside the margin of error of most individual polls. Texas polls have overstated Democrats in some past cycles, so forecasters still rate the race a Toss-up. Note: a firm called Wedgewood Polls, which had released Texas numbers, admitted on October 20 that its polls were fabricated; none of its numbers are used here.

What each side argues

Paxton's supporters point to his record suing the federal government over immigration and other policies, his alignment with Trump, and Texas's long Republican streak. They argue Talarico is too liberal for the state.

Talarico's supporters argue Paxton's legal and ethics controversies make him a weak nominee, and pitch Talarico as a faith-driven candidate focused on cost of living, public schools and health care. He became known for arguing against a bill requiring the Ten Commandments in classrooms.

Interesting things to watch

• Cornyn voters: how many Republicans who backed Cornyn split their ticket or skip the race.

• Hispanic voters in South Texas, who shifted sharply toward Republicans in 2024.

• Whether record early turnout in the big urban counties holds through October 30.

• The governor's race on the same ballot: Gov. Greg Abbott led Gina Hinojosa 52% to 48% in CBS News's October poll.