The 2026 midterms: what's at stake on November 3

Ten days out, early voting is setting records, forecasters keep moving races toward Democrats, and a polling scandal has forced aggregators to throw out fake surveys.

The basics

Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 and a narrow House majority. Every House seat, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority.

Early voting is under way in many states. In Travis County, Texas, nearly 41,000 people voted on the first day (October 19), a first-day record for any midterm this century. Ohio had more than 676,000 ballots cast by October 20.

Rating changes this week (Cook Political Report)

• October 20, Senate: South Carolina moved from Likely to Lean Republican and Mississippi from Solid to Likely Republican, both toward Democrats. Minnesota moved from Likely to Lean Democratic, toward Republican Michele Tafoya. Cook's Jessica Taylor pointed to candidate quality.

• October 23, governor: Ohio moved from Toss-up to Lean Democratic after backlash to a Vivek Ramaswamy ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother. Sabato's Crystal Ball made the same move a day earlier.

• Senate Toss-ups now include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

Close Senate races: latest polls

• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) 48%, Sen. Jon Husted (R) 44% (Marist, Oct. 15–18, likely voters)

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 50%, Mike Rogers (R) 48% (Marist, Oct. 15–18, likely voters)

• Texas: James Talarico (D) 47%, Ken Paxton (R) 45% (Marist, mid-October)

• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 49%, Sen. Susan Collins (R) 47% (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 14)

• Kansas: Sen. Roger Marshall (R) 48%, Adam Hamilton (D) 47% (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 13–14)

• Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) 45.9%, Josh Turek (D) 44.2% (Trafalgar, Oct. 15)

• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) 50%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 48% (InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 11)

Nearly all of these are within the margin of error. See each race page for every poll we track and its average.

A fake-poll scandal

On October 20, a firm called Wedgewood Polls said most of its releases had been fabricated as an "experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight" in polling. Its numbers had been picked up by aggregators and news outlets in races including Texas, Michigan and Nebraska; The New York Times removed 15 of its polls and Decision Desk HQ 17. The Atlas has removed all Wedgewood polls from its race pages and recalculated the averages.

What voters say matters

In Pew's October survey, 84% of registered voters called the economy very important, followed by the future of democracy (73%), healthcare (68%), education (62%) and immigration (59%). Marist's mid-October polls found 44% of likely voters in Ohio and 43% in Michigan saying their family finances got worse in the past year, and more voters in both states calling their House vote a vote against President Trump than for him.

The arguments

Republicans argue that their majorities are needed to continue tax cuts, border enforcement and the president's agenda, and that Democrats would focus on investigations and higher spending. Democrats argue that a check on the president is needed on costs, the Iran war, fuel prices, tariffs and immigration tactics, and that control of Congress would let them restore health subsidies and block unpopular policies.

What to watch

Early-vote turnout by party, late ad spending, whether the Iran war or fuel prices shift the race in the final week, and legal fights over who may vote and which ballots count (see our explainer on election-rules fights).