Michigan Senate: El-Sayed vs. Rogers, and the polls
An open seat in a swing state pits progressive Abdul El-Sayed against former Rep. Mike Rogers, who nearly won in 2024. The latest Marist poll has it within two points.
How we got here
Sen. Gary Peters retired. Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, beat Rep. Haley Stevens in the Aug. 4 primary by less than a point, 48.45% to 47.55%, despite about $30 million spent by AIPAC-aligned groups backing Stevens. Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and House Intelligence chairman, ran unopposed with Trump's endorsement. He lost the 2024 Senate race by about 0.3 points.
The polls (October)
• Marist, Oct. 15–18 (likely voters, ±4.3): El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 48%. Among registered voters El-Sayed led by 7.
• Rasmussen (R), Oct. 14: El-Sayed 46%, Rogers 44%
• InsiderAdvantage (R), Oct. 9–10: El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 46%
• Tyson Group (R, pro-Rogers), Oct. 6–8: Rogers 46%, El-Sayed 44%
• Quantus (R), Oct. 5–6: El-Sayed 48%, Rogers 47%
• YouGov, Sept. 22–Oct. 4: El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 48%
Our average has El-Sayed ahead by about 3 points; the likely-voter numbers are tighter than the registered-voter numbers. Cook rates it a Toss-up. A fabricated Wedgewood poll that had shown El-Sayed up 6 has been removed.
The debates
At the first debate on Oct. 8 in Grand Rapids, Rogers broke with the administration on several points: he said the Iran war needs to end, called for ending the tariff fight with Canada, and said ICE tactics in Minnesota were probably not appropriate. El-Sayed said he did not want tax dollars subsidizing wars abroad. The two met again on Oct. 21 on WXYZ in Detroit.
What each side argues
El-Sayed supports Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and ending unconditional military aid to Israel. His supporters say he speaks to voters who feel ignored by both parties; Rogers's supporters say those positions are far outside the Michigan mainstream.
Rogers pitches national security experience and support for manufacturing and the auto industry. His critics say he moved to Florida for years before returning to run and will follow Trump's lead; he has worked to show independence on tariffs and the war.
Interesting things to watch
• Arab American and Muslim voters in Dearborn, many of whom backed third parties or Trump in 2024.
• Union households and the auto industry's view of tariffs.
• Whether Stevens's primary voters fully come home to El-Sayed.
• The governor's race: Democrat Jocelyn Benson led Republican John James by 6 points among likely voters in Marist's poll.