Maine Senate: Collins vs. Jackson, and the polls
Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against former state Senate President Troy Jackson in a race decided by ranked-choice voting. October polls show Jackson narrowly ahead.
How we got here
Graham Platner won the Democratic primary with about 72% after Gov. Janet Mills suspended her campaign, then withdrew on July 10 after allegations about his past. Democrats nominated Troy Jackson, a former logger and former president of the Maine Senate, at a July 25 convention.
Maine uses ranked-choice voting, so if no candidate wins a majority of first choices, lower-ranked candidates' votes are redistributed.
The polls (October)
• InsiderAdvantage (R), Oct. 14: Jackson 49%, Collins 47%
• Suffolk, Oct. 11: Jackson 49%, Collins 47%
• Rasmussen (R), Oct. 8: Jackson 49%, Collins 47%
• Washington Post–Schar School, Sept. 30–Oct. 5: Jackson 50%, Collins 46%
• Marist, Oct. 1–4 (registered voters): Jackson 51%, Collins 47%
• CBS News/YouGov, Sept. 23–Oct. 1: tied at 50%
• Trafalgar (R), Oct. 1: tied at 46%
Our average has Jackson ahead by about 1.5 points, well within the margin of error. Collins has beaten negative polls before: in 2020 she trailed in most public polls and won by about 9 points. Cook rates the race a Toss-up.
Inside the numbers
In the Post–Schar poll, voters gave Collins a 24-point edge on bringing federal money home and on working across party lines, but 58% said she sides with Trump too often. Cost of living was the top issue at 41%. CBS found Collins winning about 1 in 5 voters who disapprove of Trump, a crossover few Republicans get.
Further down the ballot, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads the open governor's race, which Cook rates Solid Democratic.
What each side argues
Collins's supporters point to her seniority as a top appropriator, her independent votes, and the money she has secured for Maine. Jackson's supporters argue she too often backs Trump's agenda and pitch Jackson as a working-class, pro-union candidate focused on costs and health care.
ProPublica has reported an FBI inquiry into contracts linked to people around Collins; she denies wrongdoing and no charges have been filed.