Kansas Senate: Marshall vs. Hamilton, and the polls
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. A megachurch pastor endorsed by two former Republican governors has made Sen. Roger Marshall's race a Toss-up.
Who's running
Sen. Roger Marshall (R), an OB/GYN before entering politics, was elected in 2020 with 53.2% and won his August primary with about 80%.
Adam Hamilton (D) is the founding pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, described as the largest United Methodist church in the country. He first explored an independent run, then won the August 4 Democratic primary with about 35% in a crowded field. He is endorsed by Gov. Laura Kelly and five former governors, including Republicans Mike Hayden and Bill Graves. Libertarian David C. Graham is also on the ballot.
The polls
• InsiderAdvantage (R), Oct. 13–14: Marshall 48%, Hamilton 47%
• InsiderAdvantage (R), Oct. 9–10: Hamilton 48%, Marshall 47%
• YouGov, early October: Hamilton 48%, Marshall 45%
• GBAO (Hamilton campaign), early October: Hamilton 46%, Marshall 41%
• NYT/Siena, late September: tied at 45%
• Emerson, Sept. 15–16: Hamilton 45%, Marshall 43%, Graham 4%. Emerson found 53% of Kansas voters disapprove of President Trump.
Our average has Hamilton ahead by about 1.5 points, inside the margin of error. Cook moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss-up on October 6; other forecasters still rate it Lean or Likely Republican. A Wedgewood poll in this race was removed after the firm admitted fabricating its results.
The issues
• Farm costs: diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon in late September. At an October 19 rally in Park City, Kansas, President Trump announced an $8 billion "Harvest Fuel Relief" payment for farmers, and a White House-affiliated account credited Marshall for it.
• Medical debt: The New York Times reported that Marshall sued more than 700 former patients over unpaid bills, and that at least 81 were arrested after missing court dates. Hamilton has run ads on it; Marshall's campaign called one ad defamatory.
• Health care and costs, Trump's agenda, and abortion, which Kansas voters chose to keep protected in a 2022 referendum.
What each side argues
Marshall's supporters say he delivers for farmers, backs Trump's border and tax agenda, and that Kansas needs a reliable Republican vote in a closely divided Senate. They cast Hamilton as a liberal who would back Democratic leadership.
Hamilton's supporters pitch him as a bridge-building outsider who can win Republicans and independents, pointing to his GOP endorsements, and argue Marshall is too partisan and out of touch on costs and health care.
Also on the ballot
The open governor's race between Republican Ty Masterson and Democrat Cindy Holscher, rated Lean Republican. Emerson had Masterson ahead 51% to 44% in September.