The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz: where things stand

Iran says Hormuz stays shut without a deal, oil is back above $110, a third U.S. carrier group is heading to the region and Houthi strikes on Saudi airports are widening the war. Strikes are on hold until after the midterms.

What happened

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran while nuclear negotiations were under way. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials; his son Mojtaba Khamenei was named the new supreme leader on March 8.

Iran answered with missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. bases and Gulf states, and closed the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about a fifth of the world's oil. A ceasefire in April broke down, a June memorandum briefly ended the fighting, and that deal collapsed on July 8 after Iran attacked ships in the strait. The U.S. has kept a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports since mid-July.

This week (October 18–24)

• Hormuz stays shut. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on October 21: "Until an agreement or understanding is reached regarding this strait, it will not be open to everyone." Indirect talks continue through Pakistan and Qatar, and Pakistan's army chief visited Tehran to mediate.

• Strikes are on hold, for now. Israel's planned large-scale strikes were reportedly shelved after President Trump opposed renewed fighting before the November 3 midterms. The U.S. is reportedly sending a third carrier group to the region and preparing strike options against Iranian energy and nuclear sites. Trump said: "We may do another little epic fury, or they'll agree."

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, days before Israel's own election, said Trump had told him the U.S. is "ready to finish the job" and that the Iranian regime must be overthrown.

• Oil spiked again. Brent crude hit about $112 a barrel on October 20, its highest since May, and Fox News reported it settling near $117 on October 23; U.S. crude (WTI) closed at $103.27.

• Attacks on shipping continue. The IRGC claimed strikes on four U.S.-linked tankers on October 22 and said a supertanker hit a mine (unverified). The UK's maritime agency counted 11 confirmed incidents in the region in the previous week.

• The war is spreading to Saudi Arabia. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, fighting Saudi Arabia again since mid-July, have hit Saudi civilian airports. Riyadh's King Khalid airport has been closed since a severe attack on October 10, and an attack on King Fahd airport in Dammam on October 21 killed two people and injured eight. On October 21 the State Department ordered non-emergency U.S. diplomats and families to leave Saudi Arabia.

• Iran has warned it could target undersea cables and data and AI centers if fighting resumes.

The toll so far

Reported deaths include roughly 3,500–3,700 in Iran (Iranian government and HRANA figures), 19 U.S. service members and a contractor, and dozens in Israel and the Gulf states. Figures vary by source. The Congressional Research Service put U.S. spending at about $113 billion by June.

The case for the U.S. approach

Supporters say Iran was close to being able to build a nuclear weapon, that its government had just violently crushed mass protests, and that it funds Hezbollah, the Houthis and other armed groups. They argue that keeping military and economic pressure on Tehran, including the blockade, is the only way to force a lasting deal, and that reopening Hormuz on Iran's terms would reward attacks on shipping.

The case against

Critics say the war was launched without congressional authorization and in the middle of negotiations, that it violates international law, and that it has cost lives, more than $100 billion and record fuel prices. They argue regime change has not happened, that renewed strikes risk an even wider regional war now reaching Saudi Arabia, and that diplomacy through Pakistan and Qatar should take priority.

What to watch

Israel's election on October 27, the U.S. midterms on November 3, whether U.S. or Israeli strikes resume afterward, whether Pakistani and Qatari mediation produces a Hormuz deal, and whether Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalate.