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◆ THE IDEOLOGY ATLAS

Brazil's runoff: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro on October 25

Latin America's largest democracy chooses between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Polls show a virtual tie.

How we got here

In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro received about 56.1 million votes and Lula about 53.9 million, sending them to a runoff on Sunday, October 25.

Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running until 2030 after an electoral court ruled he abused his power by casting doubt on the 2022 election, and he is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence linked to efforts to overturn that result. His eldest son, a senator, is running in his place.

The polls

• Datafolha, Oct. 13–15 (2,520 people, ±2): Flávio 47%, Lula 45%; on valid votes, 51% to 49%. A week earlier Datafolha had Flávio ahead 49% to 45%.

• Quaest: Flávio 46%, Lula 44%

• CNT/MDA: Flávio 46.8%, Lula 45.9%

All are within the margin of error, so most analysts call it a toss-up.

What each side argues

Flávio Bolsonaro, 42, promises a crackdown on crime and drug trafficking and tax cuts, and closely follows his father's politics. His supporters say Brazil needs order and a smaller state.

Lula, 80 and seeking a fourth term, points to social programs and to Congress's recent approval of two paid days off a week for workers. His supporters say a Bolsonaro return would threaten democratic institutions after the 2022–2023 attempts to overturn the election.

Why it matters beyond Brazil

Crime and the cost of living top voters' concerns, and Brazil's relationship with the United States is tense. The result will shape Latin American politics, trade, and policy on the Amazon.

Sources

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